Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

The hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment large river basin scale sub-daily decade century scale. To robustly assess the 21st impact for hydrology entire High Mountain Asia (HMA) a wide range of we use high resolution cryospheric-hydrological model covering 15 upstream HMA quantify compound effects future changes precipitation temperature based on projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 ensemble. Our analysis reveals contrasting responses HMA's rivers, dictated by their regimes. At seasonal scale, earlier onset melting causes shift magnitude peak water availability, year. after an initial increase, glacier melt declines mid or end except Tarim basin, where it continues increase. Despite variability regimes across our results indicate relatively consistent terms total availability decadal time scales. Although increases headwaters, seasonality may diverge widely between need be addressed while adapting region food security, energy security as well biodiversity, livelihoods many depend HMA.